By Professor David Threlkeld
The Cincinnati Reds began their 2007 season with high hopes after finishing only two games under .500 the previous year. However, after an opening day win over the Chicago Cubs, the season went downhill thanks in part to 28 blown saves by what was by all accounts one of the worst bullpens in recent memory. Is there reason to believe that 2008 will be any different?
The simple answer is yes, for two reasons. The first is that the Reds loosened the purse strings and signed closer Francisco Cordero from divisional rival Milwaukee for $46 million over four years. Cordero will provide a bona-fide closer in a bullpen that has been searching for one for quite some time. Last year David Weathers stepped into that role and did a very admirable job in a position for which he is not ideally suited. Signing Cordero allows the Reds to move Weathers into the setup role where he is a better fit over the long haul. The setup pitchers were consistently unable to hold onto leads or keep the Reds close in the later innings of games last year. With Weathers, along with Jared Burton and Bill Bray, the Reds look to improve upon the area of the game that cost them so dearly last season.
The second reason that the Reds should perform differently is that for the first time in many years the Reds have stepped outside the organization to hire a proven major league manager rather than hire someone within the organization to fill the vacant role. Dusty Baker brings with him a proven track record. In his previous coaching stops in San Francisco and Chicago, Baker’s teams placed either first or second in the division during nine of the fifteen seasons that he was manager. He was named National League Manager of the Year on three different occasions and his 2002 San Francisco team went to the World Series. He brings with him a player friendly coaching style, a ton of experience, and the respect necessary to deal with star players who need to be brought in line from time to time.
The big questions for this team revolve around their starting pitching. Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo figure to have the first two slots nailed down. Harang has proven to be an All-Star caliber pitcher for the last several seasons and Arroyo, who was an All-Star in 2006, comes off a season that saw him lose several games early on only to rebound with a solid second half. The Reds have also signed Josh Fogg who pitched for the Colorado Rockies last year during their run to win the National League pennant. In Colorado he went 10-9 with a 4.94 ERA and he figures to move into the third slot in the starting rotation. Homer Bailey, Matt Belisle, Edinson Volquez and Jeremy Affeldt will compete for the fourth and fifth spots. As with all major league teams, the success of the starting rotation will go a long way to determining the outcome of the season for the Reds.
The Reds starting line-up looks to be solid although Alex Gonzalez recently learned that his knee is broken which means the Reds will need to find a replacement for him at shortstop for the early part of the season. Baker will also need to find someone to fill the role of leadoff hitter, a role for which there doesn’t seem to be a clear-cut favorite. The starting center field position is also up for grabs with the departure of Josh Hamilton.
Prediction: Look for Dusty Baker’s Reds to show improvements in both pitching and in fundamental baseball and to finish in the top half of the N.L. Central, though not at the top of the division. The Reds should make it over .500 for the first time since 2000.
Other MLB Previews:
Chicago White Sox (Coach Garry Nelson)
